Ep. 90: The Honest Math of Income — Thin Dividend Coverage, Bond Yields That Lie, Premium Compression & Where Income Is Hiding
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S1 E90

Ep. 90: The Honest Math of Income — Thin Dividend Coverage, Bond Yields That Lie, Premium Compression & Where Income Is Hiding

6 distinct income sub-asset-classes framed by honest-math. (1) Dividendology on Morningstar's 10 best dividend stocks — defensive list with thin coverage: Pepsi FCF payout 50%(2015)->99.5%(2025), Mondelez div growth unbacked by FCF, Accenture the deep-value contrarian (down ~56%, ~5% yield, reverse-DCF ~86% upside even at zero growth). (2) JPMorgan JPIE PM interview — fixed income: a bond fund's yield is NOT its expected return (yield minus default losses); the Bloomberg Agg's ~6yr duration is an accident of construction and lost to cash over 10yr; separate duration from credit risk; active beats passive in bonds. (3) PTY & TSLX — high-yield CEF/BDC: PTY -13% price but only -3.68% total return driven by PREMIUM COMPRESSION not NAV erosion/cut; TSLX (best-in-class BDC) cut div 4c as 2025 rate cuts squeezed floating-rate income. (4) 5 undervalued REITs (Dividend Prince) — FFO payout = the real safety metric: O 5.38%/75.9% FFO, INVH 25% disc, AMH, AVB, ESS, all 10-25% below fair value. (5) 247WallSt SCHD/DGRO/VYM — retirement-income barbell (quality+yield / growth / breadth), SCHD 3.9%/0.06%/229% 10yr, DGRO 2.2%/248% 10yr, VYM 2.4-2.7%/0.04%/202%. (6) 247WallSt AGNC — monthly 13.8% Agency-MBS mortgage REIT, repo-carry trade at 7.4x leverage, $0.12/mo since 2020, coverage 3.5x core, ordinary-income tax (IRA/Roth), book-value-defense payout risk. Editorial steer: honest math over headline yield; quality/coverage/durability; skepticism of too-good yields.
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